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Sheehan: Pitcher Workloads (June 19, 2003)

Posted 1:24 p.m., June 19, 2003 (#3) - Robert Dudek
  The last element, higher level of talent making the picthers work harder is pure speculation. The fact that more hitters hit for power now is manifested in higher walk and higher OBP rates already. Pitchers have learned new pitches and are able to gather information about hitters' weaknesses in more systematic and precise ways than ever before. So... as the hitter's approach has become more scientific, so has the pitcher's.

We are seeing pitchers who seek to reduce the number of pitches they throw by constantly challenging the hitters (i.e. not giving up walks). Curt Schilling, David Wells and Roy Halladay are good examples of this. Greg Maddux has not thrown many pitches per inning and I suspect he has a pitches/IP rate about as low as any post-WW II ace pitcher.

This article would have been much more interestiung if Joe had gotten a hold of a pitch count estimator like Tango's and actually checked how many pitches were being thrown per start by today's aces versus yesteryear's.

Advances in Sabermetrics (August 18, 2003)

Posted 3:43 p.m., August 25, 2003 (#42) - Robert Dudek
  Base Runs, Leveraged Index, DIPS, Win Shares.

One question, Tango. Doesn't it make more sense to regress to an individual player's established norms rather than the league average?

E.g. Suppose Sammy Sosa's HR/AB rates are

year 1: 600 AB, 8% HR
year 2: 650 AB, 7 % HR
year 3: 630 AB, 7.5% HR

year 4: 500 AB, 9% HR

Let's assume, for the sake of simplicity, that the league average for the period as a whole is 3% (homeruns) of ABs. The evidence suggests that Sosa's "true" homerun rate for year 4 is much greater than 3%. Regressing to something like 7.5% would make more sense, wouldn't it?

Advances in Sabermetrics (August 18, 2003)

Posted 4:01 p.m., August 25, 2003 (#44) - Robert Dudek
  I guess the question I'm asking is: why use league average performance as representative of the "population a player was drawn from"? Shouldn't we form a sub-group, say power hitting outfielders, as more representative of the population Sammy Sosa was drawn from?

Solving DIPS (August 20, 2003)

Posted 5:24 p.m., August 25, 2003 (#15) - Robert Dudek
  I think the batter needs to be included in any full assessment. Major league hitters differ greatly in their ability to get hits on balls in play. The aggregate of hitters pitchers face are going to differ over a 200-800 PA sample quite a bit, I'd guess.

Double-counting Replacement Level (August 25, 2003)

Posted 6:17 p.m., August 25, 2003 (#9) - Robert Dudek
  Tango,

I wonder how regulars/backups break down by position. For example, are backup 1Bs/SS/2B etc better or worse than average fielders ?

Bonds, Pujols and BaseRuns (September 6, 2003)

Posted 10:31 p.m., September 11, 2003 (#31) - Robert Dudek
  David,

I must confess I don't really know what the right way to deal with the IBB in the BaseRuns formula is. The formula I devised was meant to closely resemble the absolute run values for the 1994-2001 game log sample, as reflected by the plus 1 method. The "plus 1" value for each event was meant to approximate the values that Tango observed for a similar period.

Afterwards, I take what BaseRuns says and adjust it on the basis of outs saved/consumed over/under the team average rate. For example, on the Giants, Bonds is going to save a lot of outs (which then go back into the team pot) relative to the average. Other players on the team are going to consume those outs. When you add up outs saved/consumed for every player on the team, the result is a net outs of zero.

Part of the IBB's value is captured this way, so you may be right about using a .08 run value in the formula itself.

Aaron's Baseball Blog - Andruw Jones (September 9, 2003)

Posted 1:38 p.m., September 9, 2003 (#1) - Robert Dudek
  Is it possible that Andruw's high walk rate in his rookie year was partly the result of batting low in the batting order? Was he batting in the #7 or #8 slot, where semi-intentional walks are far more likely?

Aaron's Baseball Blog - Andruw Jones (September 9, 2003)

Posted 10:46 p.m., September 12, 2003 (#7) - Robert Dudek
  Reyes could be Shawon Dunston, but I think he'll be a better hitter than that. Perhaps Edgar Renteria?

Accuracy of Run Estimators (September 12, 2003)

Posted 9:24 p.m., September 12, 2003 (#12) - Robert Dudek
  Michael,

It's important to get to develop the most accurate and logically sound method one can using a given dataset. Even if it only amounts to a couple of runs here or there, it's a matter of principle.

RBIs (September 15, 2003)

Posted 1:11 a.m., September 16, 2003 (#2) - Robert Dudek
  Bat Derek Jeter leadoff, Barry Bonds 2nd and Vlad Guerrero 3rd. The record would fall.

Pitchers, MVP, Quality of opposing hitters (September 19, 2003)

Posted 6:23 p.m., September 20, 2003 (#7) - Robert Dudek
  Tango,

What about the notion that the best hitters usually bat 3rd or 4th, where they have more PA with men on base as a percentage of their total PA than the average hitter. Isn't this the same, on a smaller scale, as your leverage index for relievers. I believe that you found that starting pitchers do not deviate from 1.0 very much on the LI scale.

It's also possible that players like Bret Boone and Alex Rodriguez, who play key defensive positions and bat a lot with men on base have effective LIs that put them beyond the reach of a starting pitcher that faces 1000 batters.

Win Shares per Dollar (November 20, 2003)

Posted 10:01 a.m., November 25, 2003 (#7) - Robert Dudek
  It's true that Bonds probably produces less value per dollar than a decent player making near the minimum, but there isn't the roster space to accomodate all those cheap players. You'd end up with an average club with a total payroll of about half the median, at best. That won't win championships or generate revenue.

Since the really good players are rare, and a contending has to have a number of them, you'll generally have to pay them more per win share than ordinary players.

So, I don't think we can draw any conclusion when comparing a high-priced top player to an ordinary low paid one. We ought to look at how expensive a player is relative to players of similar quality.

Wolverton - Wavin' Wendells - Outs on Base (March 12, 2004)

Posted 2:11 a.m., March 25, 2004 (#53) - Robert Dudek
  MGL,

You mean if your scouts told you that Valverde was ready to come up mid-season you wouldn't have promoted him? I don't believe it.